How a Paul Ryan Wisconsin effect could alter the US political map | Harry J Enten

preliminary investigation indicates small bounce Mitt Romney VP selection. But if Ryan delivers Wisconsin, that could all change

selection for Vice-Chair Paul Ryan has produced little or no bounce in national polls Mitt Romney. Lack of movement so far is somewhat surprising given that the vice-presidents have produced an average of 4 hit points for the top of your ticket. Although a rebound finished product will be ephemeral.

Momentum is only a viable running mate usually offers in his home state of the order of 2-3 percentage points. This is why others and I think the selection of Ohio Senator Rob Portman makes more sense from the standpoint election. President Obama led in Wisconsin about 6 percentage points before choosing Ryan, who seemed too big for a boost to overcome vice.

There are indications, however, that perhaps underestimated call Ryan in Wisconsin. Public Policy Polling interviewed a hypothetical Romney-Ryan ticket last month and it showed behind Obama-Biden in just 1 percentage point (as opposed to a deficit of 6 points without Romney Ryan). A new Rasmussen poll has Romney picked up 4 points and move to a 1 point lead in the state of badger among potential voters. A new CNN / ORC poll of registered voters has Obama by 4 percentage points, a margin that could be expected to reduce the size of potential voters.

The importance of competition for Romney-Ryan Wisconsin can not be underestimated. If Obama wins Wisconsin, my calculations indicate that probably starts with a minimum of 247 of the 270 votes needed. He could win by simply taking Florida and its 29 electoral votes, or a combination of Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia.

Without

Wisconsin, Obama has 237 electoral votes. This may not seem like a big difference of 247, but consider the following four scenarios.

1. Romney-Ryan win without Ohio

Republican ticket has not always taken the White House without Ohio, but it is conceivable. All States awarded to Ryan-Romney are the ones where he is in a position as good or better than him in Ohio. No Wisconsin, Romney would only 263 electoral votes. With him, Romney 273 - and the White House

2. Romney-Ryan win without Florida

• Personally, I do not think that the situation in this map is going to happen, but say that Ryan and his Medicare reform scares the elderly in Florida. Romney could win with 272 electoral votes naked, taking all the other states that have a real chance to go red this time.
• 3. Romney-Ryan win without Colorado or Virginia
Part of the reason Obama has an advantage over John Kerry in the electoral college, it is because he paved the way Colorado / Virginia. Its 22 electoral votes combined is more than Ohio or Pennsylvania. A victory in Wisconsin means Romney could not afford to worry about Colorado or Virginia.

. The possibility of a tie in the electoral college is higher in Wisconsin in the game

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